A Little Chin Music

The Braves Are Better Than You Think

2011-05-11T12:36:00.011-04:00

The Braves have so much pitching it disgusts me. Literally. Well, not literally. I'm literally disgusted by how much people misuse the word "literally." I'm literally shocked and awed by how much pitching the Braves have, and I'm curious, and maybe even apprehensive, about how they will proceed given their surplus. Let's take a look, shall we?

Tommy Hanson. The guy's a flat out ace, and he's super cheap and young. He reminds me a little of the Mets young pitchers. Wait. I got that wrong. He doesn't.

Tim Hudson. It's incredible that this guy is 4 foot 11 and still getting the job done. He's nasty, he's a bargain at 9 mil per, and he's signed through 2012 with a club option for 2013.

Jair Jurrjens. After a dazzling rookie campaign and a disappointing 2010, Jair is 4 and 0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He's 25 years old, and I'm feeling a little queasy.

Brandon Beachy. 2.98 ERA. .97 WHIP. More than a strikeout per inning. He's 24 years old. Now I'm literally disgusted.

Derek Lowe. Is anyone more underrated than Derek Lowe? 2010's National League pitcher of the month in September is incredibly reliable. He never gets hurt. He gives the Braves length and quality. He's making too much money, and he's the guy you'd think the Braves would try to move to make room for their next wave.

Mike Minor. The Braves could use a lefthanded starter, and Minor is dominating triple-A competition. He's one of the 30 best prospects in the game, and I'm personally very high on this guy.

Julio Teheran. Also dominating in triple-A. Teheran is 20 years old, and one of the 5 best prospects in the game.

Randall Delgado. This is an embarrassment of riches. Minor was the 7th pick in the draft, but the rest of these guys were there to be had by other teams. Also, Minor was considered a safe, quick, cheap sign at #7 overall. His velocity spiked in pro-ball, and now he's projected as a frontline starter. So the Braves outscouted on that front, too.

Back to Delgado, who, by the way, also has front of the rotation stuff. We're not talking about a bunch of guys relying on command. These guys are formula one cars. They're stallions. They're B2 bombers. They're members of JSOC. L-i-t-e-r-a-l-l-y.

The Braves feel no need to rush Delgado, so he's currently dominating in double-A. He struck out 10 on Monday, and he's Baseball America's 35th best prospect in the game.

Kris Medlen. Remember Kris Medlen? The guy is three feet tall. He wears his hat with that Chad Cordero flat brimmed flair, and he was enjoying a breakout 2010 before Tommy John. What are they going to do with Medlen? Move him to the bullpen? Maybe they'll make Delgado or Teheran a closer. Their plus velocity would profile well there. Oh wait. They already have the most excited short reliever, and I mean short, in the entire game.

Craig Kimbrel. He makes me feel warm and tingly inside. He looks like he's seven years old. I'm a little worried his arm is going to fall off. Hitters react to Kimbrel like no pitcher in baseball. He often operates in the high-90s, but sometimes his heater is in the mid-90s, and hitters react like they've never seen anything like it. He must hide the ball really well, and his fastball must have really late movement. His breaking ball is sick. His numbers are sick. I'm literally sick.

Jonny Venters. This guy might be better than Kimbrel. His numbers are stupid. His stuff is stupid. This guy came out of nowhere last year. Tommy John must have agreed with him because he's a lefty throwing 95 mile an hour sinkers. His ERA is under 1. His WHIP is .66. He could close or he could start. I'm pretty sure Jonny Venters could do anything he set his mind to.

Eric O'Flaherty. Make it stop. Eric is from Walla Walla. ERA: 1.02. WHIP: 1.08. Blood Alcohol: 0.00. I'm kidding. He's totally drunk.

And these are just the guys I thought of off the top of my head. I'm sure this year's Brandon Beachy is currently rising through the minors right now in order to make life as a Mets fan more meaningless than it already is.

Seems like they could trade one of these guys for a centerfielder, no?

Bryce Harper: Baseball's Third Best Prospect

2011-05-06T18:03:00.046-04:00

I have a theory that baseball fans everywhere are missing out on one of the great stories of our time. It's one developing in sleepy Hagerstown, Maryland. I don't really know whether Hagerstown is sleepy or not, but I'm guessing it is.

As winter's top 100 prospect lists started trickling in, I was shocked and appalled to read that insiders actually felt that the identity of the game's best prospect was up for debate. Mike Trout had taken the Midwest League by storm in the first half of 2010, and writers and talent evaluators alike were smitten. Bryce Harper? The shine had dimmed. Would he even be picked #1 overall if he had come out in 2012 rather than Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon? The best in the business at Baseball America didn't think so. Some were calling baseball's LeBron the #3 prospect in the sport.

Let's take another look at that map.

As a freshman and sophomore, Harper was the best high school player in the country. That's never been done before.

Instead of putting up silly, unchallenged numbers as a high school junior, Harper, at 17, played Junior College ball in a wood bat league, and hit .443/.526/.987 with 31 homers and 98 rbi in 66 games. Just take a moment. Those numbers are stupid. We're not talking about Jim Brown playing Pee Wee football, we're talking about a 17 year old trying to hit a sphere being pitched at varying speeds with varying movement with a rounded piece of lumber.

Harper won the Golden Spikes Award given to the best collegiate baseball player in the country, a first for a JuCo player, but it's my impression that Harper was still totally undervalued. Around this time, Baseball America projected Harper as having 80 power, but saw him as about a .270 hitter.

.270 my arse.

Harper got selected 1(1) by the Nationals last June. Around this time the vultures started circling. Baseball aficionados/amateur psychologists wrote that Harper had an attitude problem. Plus, he puts too much eye black on his face. He's greedy in hiring Scott Boras as his agent, and will hold out for the most money he can get his greedy, non-high school finishing little hands on in order to break a signing bonus record, which he didn't, and possibly even exercise his leverage as a JuCo player and opt out of a future with the lowly Nats in order to be picked 1(1) again the following year by a team more to his liking, which he didn't. The vultures wrote like that too. No periods anywhere.

Harper did sign minutes before the deadline, which is now the norm for top draft picks, and didn't play professionally until the glitzy Arizona Fall League. Yes, that's a 17 year old just turning 18 (he was born last Thursday), playing his first games as a pro in a league reserved for top prospects who've usually made it to double-A. The Nats tried to ease the transition for Harper by doing something rather strange. They placed him on the AFL taxi-squad, which meant he could only play twice a week. There's nothing better for an everyday player's rythym than playing twice a week. It reminds me of when Willie Randolph would bench guys on hot streaks just to mix things up.

So baseball's Lebron had just turned 18. He's competing against top double-A prospects, and he's playing twice a week. He struggled, right? This is baseball, after all. We're not talking about basketball or football where the most gifted athlete will reign supreme just on the strength of his being the most gifted athlete. This is baseball. The sport that's more mental than physical. The sport where when guys get in their heads and start struggling they don't have a bad half a game or a bad game, like in basketball, they have a bad season. Harper hit .343/.410/.629 in the AFL.

But the industry just wasn't sure. It was a very small sample size.

Mike Trout had an incredible start to his 2010 campaign in the pitcher friendly Midwest League, but he slugged .434 in 200 abs in the California League, where I once hit 7 homers in a game. Trout is an outfielder with average power. Maybe a tick above average. And for all the talk about his 80 speed, in the California League he was 11 for 17 in stolen base attempts, and so far in 2011 has the same number of steals as one Bryce Harper. Putting Trout above Harper on a list feels like one of those things you wouldn't want to admit to 5 years down the road.

Jonathan Mayo, who doesn't so much have an opinion himself as report on the general consensus of scouts he talks to, which by the way is quite the niche Mayo has carved out for himself, put Harper #3 on his annual prospect list. Yikes.

Baseball America, of course, got it right, but there were those on staff who liked Trout best.

Harper, with flashbulbs popping during his spring abs like it was the kickoff of the Super Bowl, struck out in his first two plate appearances. He was overmatched. We're talking about an 18 year old with the weight of the world on his shoulders going up against, in some cases, seasoned professionals.

Yeah, not so much.

Harper made what we in the trade call "an adjustment," and finished his stint in Major League Spring Training with a line of .389/.450/.556. The numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he started 0 for 2 with 2 strikeouts, and again was used sporadically, getting one or two abs a game.

So even though Harper was probably one of the 8 best position players the Nats had they sent him to low-A Hagerstown. They wanted to build up Harper's confidence, and saw no reason to get that arbitration clock ticking any faster than it had to. Surely, we'd all see a letdown when the grind of bus trips and meals at Denny's and life as a minor leaguer took its toll on, to this point, the relatively sheltered Harper.

...

But surely...

...

Let the letdown commence.

...

I mean this guy has an attitude problem. He's greedy. It's good to be confident, but he's overconfident. By the way. Speaking of overconfidence. It's always helpful when sports writers tell us what kind of personality traits world class athletes need to embody in order to be successful. Because who knows better than some nebbish who sits on a couch all day watching sports and punching the keys on his laptop what it takes to be a world class athlete? Nobody, that's who.

So Harper struggles. For a week or so Harper struggles. Then he goes into beast mode. He turns his dial to 11. Baseball America was right, he doesn't get cheated. But he also squares the ball up. Like a lot. Through the first 26 games of the young season, Harper is hitting .368. His on base percentage is .466. His slugging percentage is .724.

This guy is totally overhyped!!!

Or he's been underhyped, and we're all in for a real, real treat.

So now we play the waiting game. When will Washington promote young Skywalker? I mean Harper. It would delight this fan to see a jump to double-A in the near future. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he will tear the cover off the ball at that level, and then a September call up would be within striking distance. That's quite the accelerated timetable. Remember Harper will be 13 years old this October.

Comps for Bryce Aron Harper, or BAH as I like to call him, have included Adam Dunn with more athleticism, and Larry Walker with more power. How about Josh Hamilton circa 2010 without the drug addiction, constant injuries, and talk of Jesus. Well, maybe a little talk of Jesus.

Baseball America sees 80 power and a .270 average. In his first full season of pro ball, Harper has 7 homers, an impressive number, but he's hitting .368. He uses the whole field. He has ridiculous power, but Harper is first and foremost a baseball player. That's why he dons the war paint. That's why he doesn't wear batting gloves. That why he used to sleep in his catching equipment.

Sports writer Bill Simmons has a theory about never betting the football team everyone is sure will cover the spread. The idea being if everyone is in the know, they aren't. And while this is an amusing way to look at the world, it's not exactly scientific. And I think this is what people were guilty of when they started finding flaws in Harper's game and makeup that just aren't there.

And while I may be accused of splitting hairs, which I'm surely doing, a lot of people get paid a lot of money to evaluate these things. Mike Trout is really, really good. He's just not as good as Harper.

The baseball intelligentsia tired of poor Harper before it even got to see him play. Heck, no one has really seen him play. That's why I'm renting a car and taking my wife on a road trip to Hagerstown. It's why fans all over the country are descending on Hagerstown, Maryland.

It's like in Field of Dreams when James Earl Jones says, "They'll come to Hagerstown, Ray."

That's what he says. Trust me.

Florida Teams Flexible, Ready for Key Personnel Losses

2010-06-15T18:20:00.035-04:00

How many Major League rotations would Jeremy Hellickson not be able to crack? Off the top of my head, I'm guessing the all-star teams in Boston and New York, and the rotation that we know he can't crack, Tampa's. Well, Wade Davis better get his act together because Jeremy Hellickson's four-pitch mix is singin' in Triple-A like Lea Michele on the Tonys, "I'm-a comer."

Many have correctly predicted that after Carl Crawford signs his nine figure deal this offseason, with a team that may or may not rhyme with the Phew Gork Bankees, Desmond Jennings will slide into Crawford's outfield slot, and the Rays probably won't miss a beat. Carlos Pena's strange, strange offensive game should be leaving Tampa/St. Pete this coming offseason as well. Most teams in Major League baseball would take a huge hit by letting players as productive as Crawford and Pena go. The Rays have about 17 different ways of filling those gaps, and each seems more athletic and exciting than the next.

Ben Zobrist has been a revelation not just because of his rare power-speed combo, but because he can play all over the field. With the emergence of Sean "the right handed Chase Utley" Rodriguez over the last week and a half, the Rays have two under-30, athletic players with power that can play almost anywhere on the diamond. The Rays now have four above-average middle infielders, Zobrist, Sean-Rod, Brignac and Bartlett, when most other teams don't have two. It seems likely that Zobrist and his height will fill Pena's spot at first, leaving the Rays plenty of options at second, short, right, and DH. Brignac is looking more and more like the future at shortstop, and Rodriguez has shown the ability to play the outfield when called upon. Matt Joyce has a .470 OBP in Durham, Hank Blalock is starting to hit, and John Jaso makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Jason Bartlett, an under-30 shortstop who hit .320 in '09, may be the odd man out.

Did I mention I'm a fan of Sean Rodriguez?

Another team that seems always able to fill in as their players get too expensive is the Florida Marlins. I know what you're thinking. This is some analysis. Do they give the Pulitzer to bloggers? Well, I don't know.

Dan Uggla's final arbitration year in 2011 should command upwards of $13 million. While most teams couldn't afford to cut ties with the only second baseman in MLB history with 30 homers three years in a row, the Marlins will probably deal Uggla, save money, and reload.

Watching Chris Coghlan play the outfield is a little like accompanying Casey McGehee to the all-you-can-eat-ribs special at Golden Corral; it's not pretty. However, the League Of Nations Head-of-Scouting just called me on Gordon Gecko's cell phone to tell me that Coghlan is actually pretty solid at his natural position, 2nd base. Remember Chris Coghlan? He's 24 years old, a .308 career hitter, and a lover of freedom.

Mike Stanton looks like he is going to bare-hand change ups Geena Davis style, and shove it down your f!#king throat, Tom Berenger style. LOOOOOOVE HIMMMM!!!

Gaby Sanchez seems to battle every time I tune in like a right-handed Paul O'Neill or something. If there's one Marlin that's not going to be caught off balance by Johan Santana's increasingly pedestrian fastball/change repertoire, it's Gaby Sanchez. If there's one Marlin that is, it's Cameron Maybin. He's tuuurrrribbuuulllll!!!

Logan Morrison is tearing up Triple-A, and is clearly their three hitter of the future - a good thing because the Fish are very right handed, another reason they'll say goodbye to Mr. Uggla, and possibly Mr. Ross who's set to make about 9 million next year.

After Morrison gets the call, I want to see them put Sanchez in left. He might not make a putout all season.

Nudes and Goats

2010-04-08T11:15:00.006-04:00

What do you think Jason Bay says to himself when he sees the lineup card and reads that he's batting 5th in the Mets order, and Mike Jacobs is in the 4 hole? Maybe he thinks, "Well, it makes sense because Jerry's splitting up the lefties. Wait, there are no lefties to split. Well, he wants to split up the righties. Split up the righties...I liked it better in Boston."

When I coached Little League, I toyed with batting my best hitter first, Ichiro style. We're conditioned to expect the best hitter in a lineup to be in the 3 hole, but an argument can be made that if one player is going to get that 5th at bat at the end of the game, it's better to see Ryan Zimmerman up there against a closer than Nyjer Morgan. I'm not saying I'd bat Zimmerman leadoff, but I would bat Bay 4th, and Jacobs 5th. I'd bat Gary Matthews Jr. not at all, and I'd bat Jeff Francoeur on his cranium.

It seems like on bang-bang plays at first, umpires get the call right 50 percent of the time. Incidentally, they could also flip a coin and get the call right 50 percent of the time.

Sometimes Keith Hernandez really gets on a roll when everything that comes out of his mouth for half an inning is wrong.

This is definitely starting to feel like a very long season for the Mets. Too many Maine/Nolasco matchups aren't going to lead to a lot of wins in the Mets column.

Ian Desmond Finishes 5th in MVP Voting

2010-04-05T12:07:00.013-04:00

If you're like me, it drives you a little crazy when baseball analysts state the obvious. I love the MLB Network more than most things in life, but it gets a little tiresome when the prognosticators, the guys paid to give you information that you don't already have, just regurgitate either the extremely obvious or Baseball America.

Tom Verducci of SI fame predicts the NL Rookie of the Year voting to look like this: 1. Jason Heyward; 2. Stephen Strasburg; 3. Mike Stanton. Geez Tom, that's some analysis. He likes Brian Matusz to win in the American League. As a pathetic, super fan, I'm looking for guys like Tom, guys that spend a ton of time in March in Arizona and Florida, to tell me something I don't already know. We won't hold it against you if you're wrong. And by the same token, I'm not giving you any credit when Heyward wins the award. Last year, Chris Coghlan and Andrew Bailey were nowhere near anyone's radar. Everyone knew about Price, Weiters, Hanson, Rasmus, Maybin, Fowler, et al., and, predictably, none of them won the award (although Hanson was pretty spectacular). For those of us who have watched and read a ridiculous amount in the last 4 to 6 weeks in anticipation of the season, we've heard Jason Heyward's name so many times that we're beginning to hate the guy.

The same goes for John Hart, my favorite of the MLB Network team, and his pick-to-click segment at the end of the 30 Teams in 30 Days shows. John, we know the highest rated prospect in each system. It does us little-to-no good to hear you restate what we've already read in Baseball America. You could qualify your opinion with, "This is what most in the industry agree on, but I like..." It wouldn't kill you. This was never truer than with The D'Backs special. Jarrod Parker isn't pitching year! How can he be your pick-to-click!?!

Here are some predictions that wouldn't have made me angry:

NL Rookie of the Year: Ian Desmond

AL Rookie of the Year: Danny Valencia

NL Cy Young: (tie) Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa

AL Cy Young: Brett Anderson

NL MVP: Joey Votto

AL MVP: Billy Butler

I spent about ten minutes on that. None of it will happen, but at least I offered something up. Verducci did his best not to state the obvious when he decided to pick MVPs that weren't Pujols and Mauer. His picks: Longoria and Tulowitzki. I haven't read all there is to read. I don't know who people are picking to win MVPs beyond the little that I've caught out of my peripheral vision. But don't those seem like the most obvious, trendy picks imaginable? I understand it's a fine line. I guess my MVP choices aren't on teams good enough, but what about Panda and Kendry Morales? Anyone that didn't go to Cal State Fullerton.

Just for the record, I love Tulowitzki. And I love Ian Desmond. Like in an unhealthy way. I think once Strasburg is called up, the Nats will be a better team than the Mets. I think the Rockies win a boatload of games, and I think the Phillies are in an injury away from not making the playoffs.

Even Omar Would Fire Omar

2010-01-30T12:14:00.020-05:00

When it was announced, my friend Greg and I argued the merits of the Jason Bay signing, and came to the following conclusion: the move made sense as long as it didn't prohibit our favorite baseball team from addressing their other needs; namely a first baseman, a short term fix at catcher, and, I'd argue, two starting pitchers.

In 2010, the Mets have singlehandedly ushered in a new era in professional sports. Guys like Bengie Molina and Joel Pineiro are actually leaving money on the table so that they don't have to play for the lovable losers, and as a fan, I've never felt quite this demoralized with a fresh baseball season on the horizon. And I've rooted for some lousy Mets teams.

In the past, Mets' brass have usually given me some reason to hope, even if those reasons were misguided. The Mets tend to overpay for over-the-hill free agents, and Mets fans are usually blind sided when said free agent's alcoholism is made apparent before his 29th birthday. Perhaps there's a flurry of acquisitions like in 2002 (Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio, Jeff D'Amico), when the law of averages would dictate that even if half bomb, we'll still be tough to beat. In the past, there may have been a phenom ready to take orbit like Gregg Jefferies, Paul Wilson, or Alex Escobar. Not this year.

Yesterday felt like a swift kick to the nuts when the Mets signed Josh Fogg, and re-signed Fernando Tatis. What, you were hoping for more? I like Fernando Tatis as much as the next guy, but his signing means that our first base solution is a platoon between him and Daniel Murphy. Ehhh.

We are the fourth best team in our division, and I'm not so sure that if a few things fall into place for those pesky Nats, we're not a last place team. The thing that Mets fans keep telling me is that if all of our players stay healthy we are a such-and-such win team. If all our players stay healthy. As I write this it's the last weekend of January, and all of our players are not healthy. Carlos Delgado, who was included as one of our players in those discussions even though he wasn't and isn't under contract, wasn't moving so well laterally down in Puerto Rico, and is now viewed as an American League player. So much for our only guy that can hit homers in our new digs. Carlos Beltran just had major knee surgery. Ehhh.

I'm not sure whether Jason Bay's signing had any effect on Mr. Molina or Mr. Pineiro's decisions, and if we had those two guys I'm sure I'd be justifying our merits the way I do each and every February, but here's how I would have spent the 17 million annually Omar sunk into one player when we have holes all over the diamond: Marlon Byrd 5 million, Adam LaRoche 5 million, and Joel Pineiro 8 million (Ok, the Mets wanted Pineiro, he didn't want them, so I'll spend my fake dollars elsewhere), Jon Garland 4 million, and Torrealba 2 million. That's 16 million for four players, and it's now being written that the Red Sox were "terrified" of Jason Bay's knees, and no other club besides the Mets was seriously in talks with the slugger. It would not shock me if Marlon Byrd alone outperforms Bay over the next three years.

Am I the only one that feels like the Mets are tanking so that they can fire Minaya? Should I be the one to tell the Wilpons that they have the authority to fire Minaya now, and don't need to tank? When I see Minaya on tv these days it's just sad. You get the impression that if it was his call, he would fire himself.

Hey Omar, cheer up! I would fire you, too. Just for kicks, here's a premature trip down memory lane, my 5 favorite Omar decisions:

1. Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins

After this little doozy, Omar mused, "It may not be a sexy trade, you have to remember, the little ones are what count sometimes. Those are the ones." How true. It wasn't a sexy trade. Or even a good trade. Or even a not totally embarrassing, horrendous trade. Plus it wasn't sexy.

2. In a three team trade, the Mets acquire J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green, and give up Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto.

Everyone including me loved this deal when Omar made it, but if you're the man calling the shots you've got to own the bad along with the good, and this one may go down as Omar's worst deal of all. Putz appears to have been damaged goods, having one lousy, injury riddled year with the Mets. Carrera blew up and hit .340 in double-A. Carp, the one guy in the deal I wasn't crazy about parting with, had another solid year in the upper minors before posting a .315/.415/.463 line in 63 September Major League abs. In all fairness to Omar, he thought he was trading for Shonn Greene the running back out of Iowa, not Tom Everett Scott, the actor who played the drummer in That Thing You Do.

Am I the only one that wants to follow Trader Jack around with pad and pencil Michael Lewis style? Note to Omar, do not make trades with Trader Jack.

3. Oliver Perez, 3 years 36 million

4. Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos

Ambiorix Burgos Sentenced

Former Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos has been sent to jail — though it may not be for what you think.

Although the former flamethrower inadvertently (or intentionally) ran over and killed two human beings with his Hummer in the Dominican Republic last fall, he is actually being sentenced for beating his girlfriend in a Queens hotel a few weeks earlier.

His current wife — who is not the aforementioned girlfriend — wrote a letter to the judge claiming that Burgos is “a good husband”. Burgos and his wife have been married for about a month.

5. Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom for Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick.

Just for kicks, check out Bostick's Minor League numbers since the trade. When you catch your breath, consider that Owens and Lindstrom both worked as the Marlins closer for extended stretches.

Tell Aaron Schatz, Revis Can Cover Big Receivers

2010-01-12T20:04:00.009-05:00

As a nerdy baseball fan (I drafted Bryce Harper in my 26 keeper fantasy league last year when he was still a high school sophomore), I love Aaron Schatz's take on the NFL, especially since everything he's been spouting lately has been pro Jets. I've got two corrections for him, though, from his last Bill Simmons podcast:

1. While Sanchez played his best game last week, he's played well to the tune of 0 turnovers for three straight weeks. Also, Bill was hinting at comparing his progression to Big Ben's rookie year...Big Ben laid an absolute egg in his first playoff game leading a 15-1 team (the Doug Brien game), and then played worse the following week in the AFC Championship game.

2. Schatz was talking about Revis' height vs. Vincent Jackson as a potential issue. This really surprised me. Randy Moss is tall. Colston is tall. Andre Johnson, too, is tall. When there's a jump ball and Revis is involved, Revis is playing offense. Did you see that back shoulder play to Chad Johnson last week? Jump balls are about timing more than height. If the Jets lose on Sunday, I'm pretty sure it's not going to be because Darrelle Revis can't cover.

The Mets, the NL MVP, and Me

2009-11-24T21:25:00.004-05:00

The Mets have new uniforms. Insert joke here. Also, I predicted the order of the impossible to figure, calculate, understand MVP voting in the senior circuit. See my post from September reproduced below.

"My guess is that Tulo comes in 5th. That Hanley is perceived as having played for a contender, and that he and Howard finish 2nd and 3rd in the voting. Prince edges Tulo for 4th."

nudes and goats

2009-10-28T15:29:00.023-04:00

If you know whom this is a picture of, you're a loser.

Ryan Howard is an excellent baseball player, and more specifically, he's an excellent hitter.

What happened to Cliff Lee? Has there ever been a starting pitcher that went from average to brilliant the way Mr. Lee has? Pitchers have had fluke years like Esteban Loaiza, but Lee's success last year clearly wasn't a fluke. He is officially one of the best pitchers in baseball, and that's not changing. Guys have figured things out later than most like Jamie Moyer, but Jamie Moyer never dominated the way Lee is dominating. Maybe he's an alien.

I wonder how many people were as jazzed up as I was about the Aaron Crow/Yonder Alonso confrontation I just followed on Gameday. I'm guessing not that many people.

Grant Desme just went yard for the 9th time in 46 A.F.L. abs. What does this mean? I can't figure out these stats. Could I hit home runs in the desert off an above-average Double-A pitcher? I feel like I'd succeed in the California League, and I couldn't hit a curveball off of a Manhattan Jew in high school.

Aaron Crow has just retired Heisey, Alonso, and Freeman in order. He's throwing strikes. Watch out world!

A Little Anniversary Music

2009-10-24T22:17:00.002-04:00

A Little Klezmer Music

2009-10-15T17:45:00.003-04:00

I would like to thank the whole community in the Bay Area. My father used to tell me, "that to make one's living as an entertainer was a noble pursuit," and the audiences' response to our work has been so generous that I've been made to think, repeatedly, of my father's words of wisdom.

When I've flown back to New York City, back to my beautiful wife and my hilarious cats, back to the painful rejection that accompanies trying to secure the next acting gig, I hope Asher's passion rubs off on me. I think most of us tend to choose comfort over sacrifice and immersion. The strength of Asher's convictions, his artistic integrity and sense of truth have been fascinating to portray each night. I will miss him.

Pedro in Game 3?

2009-10-09T18:01:00.003-04:00

DENVER -- Pedro Martinez is getting the ball and the call in another big game.

Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel chose the aging right-hander over J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton, who made cameo appearances out of the bullpen Thursday, to face the Colorado Rockies in Game 3 of their NL playoff series Saturday night.

The best-of-five series is tied at one game each.

Martinez is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in the postseason, and Manuel said he likes his history in cold weather, too.

The forecast for Game 3 calls for temperatures dipping into the 20s with snow flurries.

The 37-year-old Martinez sat out most of the year before signing with the Phillies as a free agent last in the season. He went 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in nine starts.

Not sure I go with the older, physically brittle option in 30 degree weather. Is Manuel actually referencing Pedro pitching on October Boston nights circa 2000? That's a completely different player. Seems to me that couldn't be less relevant. Favre used to play well in cold weather, too. Then he got old. Also, Joe Blanton looks like the love child of a rhinoceros and an SUV. I'm guessing he'd be ready for the elements.

Tulo for MVP?

2009-10-01T18:52:00.006-04:00

Alright, so Albert Pujols is the MVP. And Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Howard will likely be filled out second and third on most ballots. And those guys are very deserving. However, I wonder if people are really seeing what Troy Tulowitzki has done over the last 4 months. He's a shortstop who's slugged over .600 for 4 straight months. How many times in the history of the sport has that been done?

Remember the MVP races that were all about who had a huge September and carried their team into the playoffs? I think Vlad won one like that. Well, Pujols being the MVP has been a foregone conclusion seemingly forever, and all three division races have been anticlimactic, so I can't help but wonder how writers would feel if races were a little closer, and late season production was more heavily weighted.

On June 6th, Tulo was hitting .216/.306/.377, and the Rockies were 9 games under .500 and in last place. Since then, he's hit .337/.418/.633, and the Rockies are 32 games over .500 and have, as of today, punched their ticket to the postseason.

Not convinced? Tulo's numbers are better than Ryan Howard's. After today's Rockies game, and before today's Phillies game (which is when I'm writing this), Tulo sits at .299/.380/.553, and Howard's line is .276/.357/.564. Yes, Howard has driven in a ridiculous number of runs, but he has three great players batting in front of him, he has 70 more abs than Tulo and Tulo has as many runs scored, and my people in the National League West tell me that Tulo doesn't play good or great defense at the game's most demanding defensive position, he plays spectacular defense at the game's most demanding defensive position.

Hanley has had a better offensive season than Tulo, but his defense is nowhere near as good, and Hanley has had his worst month when his team needed him the most.

If Hanley's Marlins wind up 6 or 7 games back, or even 8 or 9 games back, does he get credit for being the best player on a contender? What is a contender? Meaningful games in September? Meaningful games the second half of September? I'm assuming that Prince Fielder won't get much love from the writers, but maybe he will. If Hanley's Marlins were basically done 5 days ago, and Derrek Lee's Cubs were done two or three weeks ago, and Prince's Brew Crew were done a really long time ago, where do you draw the line? They're not on bad teams.

My guess is that Tulo comes in 5th. That Hanley is perceived as having played for a contender, and that he and Howard finish 2nd and 3rd in the voting. Prince edges Tulo for 4th.

I forgot about Pablo Sandoval. How do you quantify his value? He's the only guy in that lineup that's good. That lineup is ridiculous. Molina hits big homers, but he's hitting .265. Plus, the Giants didn't make the playoffs. This MVP thing is very subjective, that's all I'm saying.

A Little Night Music

2009-09-18T18:26:00.003-04:00

Audrey is on board, my friends!

Below is a post from "The Nooner Blog," a blog featured on SNY.TV.

"Little-known fact: When Mark Sanchez farts, butterflies come out.

And that’s actually the most unsavory thing about the Jets’ young quarterback.

Normally, here at the Editorial Whee!, we’re the most self-flaggelating of Jets fans. We firmly believe that, if left to their own devices, the Jets will go 8-8 in every season, just bad enough to miss the playoffs but just good enough to miss out on a decent draft pick.

Last year, they were one Dick Mauron gaffe away from that record.

This year, something funny is happening to us, and we don’t quite understand it yet. It’s kind of like puberty, except this time the funny feeling in our pants is hope for Gang Green. Oh, and it also probably has to do with our giant mancrush on Mark Sanchez.

Look at him, for chrissakes! He’s f@#$ing beautiful. Look at his eyes. That’s what a quarterback looks like."

Jeter or A-Rod?

2009-08-06T10:36:00.011-04:00

In the early 2000s, it became trendy in baseball circles to refer to Derek Jeter as the fourth best shortstop in the game. Jeter was baseball's most marketable player, and after 4 championships in 5 years, in the nation's largest city, playing for professional sports' most storied franchise, baseball enthusiasts started to wage war against the pristine Jeter. Yankee haters and OPS lovers alike argued that Jeter was not only the least valuable of baseball's big three shortstops (A-Rod, Nomar and Jeter), but that Jeter was actually far inferior to Edgar Renteria.

It was around this time that I started to like Jeter, and to defend his honor if ever it came up in conversation. Jeter seemed like a throwback. A middle infielder that wasn't a power hitter. With A-Rod and Nomar dwarfing Jeter's regular season offensive production, we lovers of the common man turned to Jeter's uncanny knack for coming through on the sport's largest stage as proof of his greatness.

When Alex Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees, it gave all of us arguers a unique opportunity to see the game's two largest figures side by side. No longer was A-Rod playing in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest, or the dry heat of Central Texas. Now we would know if Jeter was simply a byproduct of his charmed circumstances. I mean surely A-Rod would win a bunch of rings, and play well in the postseason, and Jeter's accomplishments would be diminished because he doesn't bat third or fourth. Right?

Rob Neyer wrote in a recent blog post, "...Rodriguez' career batting line is .304/.389/.576. Not for nothing, when games are close and late, he's batting .278/.378/.539 (and in those spots he's often faced tough relief pitchers). I just don't see anything there, or at least not anything that would justify consulting Freud's notebooks. Ah, but of course there is October. In postseason games, Rodriguez has indeed struggled, relative to his regular-season performance: .279/.361/.483. You might argue that 167 plate appearances isn't enough to prove -- or even suggest -- anything. I don't think I would argue much with you. But let's assume that those numbers mean something. Should we now scurry to expert witnesses to explain why Willie Mays hit just one home run in 99 postseason plate appearances? Have you seen Joe DiMaggio's postseason numbers? They're significantly worse than A-Rod's and DiMaggio finished with 220 World Series plate appearances. Has anyone resorted to pop psychology to explain DiMaggio's October struggles? Maybe someone should. But it seems to me that the rules are different for Rodriguez. It might be natural, given the current state of sports coverage, but it sure isn't fair."

There are of course different ways of framing the argument. Joe DiMaggio was a loveable figure, and A-Rod is borderline toxic, so of course people are going to find ways to criticize A-Rod just as they probably found excuses for DiMaggio.

A-Rod's postseason numbers were good up to a point. And although it's easy to say that it's a big coincidence, that it's too small a sample, he was a lot better in the postseason when he was young and theoretically didn't know any better in Seattle than when he was a Yankee and was supposed to excel.

A-Rod's career postseason line through the Yankees/Twins ALDS in 2004 was .361/.403/.611. Since that series it's .200/.310/.360. If you crunch his postseason numbers before and after Game 3 of the infamous 2004 ALCS the fun really begins: .436/.456/.709 in 55 abs before vs .185/.299/.348 in 92 abs after.

In his last three postseasons, A-Rod has been punched out 15 times in 44 abs.

You're more than welcome to say that this is overly selective, but isn't part of the fun of being a fan deriving meaning from performance? And in this case these are all the numbers we have. We're not talking about 2 for 20, we're talking about 17 for 92. And 17 for 92 isn't good.

Don't we judge superfluous athletes based on whether they reach the pinnacle of their sport? A-Rod hit 50 homers three years in a row for a last place team. Is that the pinnacle of the sport?

I wholeheartedly agree that if A-Rod pulls a Barry Bonds or a Peyton Manning the argument will end. But until that time, the number crunching non-athletes that write about Baseball like Rob Neyer are either just being contrary, or they're missing one of the fascinating stories of this era in baseball: the Babe Ruth of his generation's career will be defined partly by his inability to perform in the postseason as a Yankee.

Plus the guy that plays next to him made the most unbelievably intuitive, pube-boy-being- everywhere-on-the-field-play the sport has ever seen. The teams he led won every year, and the teams A-Rod leads never win. He shows up on the scene, and the team is immune to winning important games. The team collapses in a fashion that no team in the history of the sport has duplicated. That's the story.

Joe DiMaggio's career postseason line of .272/.338/.422 is a far cry from his career line of .325/.398/.579, however, in Joe DiMaggio's day a huge part of being clutch meant leading your team to the World Series and winning it, with fewer postseason series the regular season meant more. In 13 major league seasons, Joe DiMaggio's Yankees appeared in 10 World Series and won it 9 times.

I'm not sure Joe DiMaggio should be characterized as a lousy postseason performer.

The fun part may be yet to come. A-Rod's stacked Yankee teams should continue to make the postseason with the regularity of DiMaggio's stacked Yankee teams, so A-Rod should have plenty of opportunities to silence his critics.

I really hope he doesn't. I hate that guy.

A Little Klezmer Music

2009-05-28T17:13:00.003-04:00

A Little Night Music

2009-05-23T10:27:00.012-04:00

My wife has been a really good sport lately. That's not what I meant. Hey...

Audrey humored me by staying up late this week to watch the Mets get swept by the Dodgers, and has taken a genuine interest in this round of the NBA Playoffs. I've managed to cure her of her initial allegiance to Los Angeles sports teams, and she's picked up her own idiosyncratic likes and dislikes along the way. She loves Max Scherzer and LeBron. She despises Carlos Beltran and Pau Gasol. And she likes to call Fernando Tatis, "TAY-tis."

If ever there was a week to get into NBA basketball, this would be it. To be honest, I haven't really followed the NBA that closely since the Knicks became a Minor League hockey team, and with the exception of the glitz and gloss of last year's Lakers/Celtics match up, I generally find professional basketball unwatchable. I know that NBA purists say that the Spurs aren't a boring team to watch, but the Spurs are boring. The Mavericks are boring. In fact, all teams in any sport from Texas are boring. Except for the Cowboys. And they're not from Texas, they're from America.

What I've seen of the last four games between the Cavs, Magic, Lakers, and Nuggets has been truly entertaining. The game has so much more flow and rhythm and pace when the refs aren't calling a foul every ten seconds (I was going to write, "when the Knicks aren't playing."). Here's an idea for the NBA, officiate regular season games the way you officiate playoff games. Why are there two sets of rules? Why can players flop in the regular season, but not in the playoffs? It makes no sense.

Also, four teams from each conference should make the playoffs. The regular season is too long, all the games are meaningless because the strongest teams make the playoffs no matter how poorly they play, and you always know who's going to win in the first round, anyway.

Last night, the league's most marketable player did something truly extraordinary, something the NBA really needed him to do (I'm sure Daniel Stern and the networks were really psyched at the prospect of a possible Magic/Nuggets Final. No wait, they weren't).

I was a little boy when Michael Jordan hung in the air, and hit "The Shot." I was still little when, after the shot, he turned and did that arm throwing fist pump celebration that still stands as the single coolest reaction an athlete has ever had to anything. It was one of the first basketball games I ever watched on television, and my imagination was completely captured. Jordan had branded me, in one form or another, a fan for life; not Kenny "Sky" Walker, not Trent Tucker, not even Patrick Ewing (By the way, it's a little weird to see Ewing on the Magic bench, and eerie to see him once again bested by greatness).

I wonder how many little boys and little girls were reeled in by what LeBron did last night, and whether my Audrey was among them. He may have even branded her a fan for life, and bought me hours upon hours of guilt-free sports viewing. Either way LeBron, I, and the good people at the Disney Corporation, thank you.

Bitch Tits

2009-05-19T17:26:00.008-04:00

This list looks at ball players that are clearly taking better supplements; not necessarily banned substances, just better. I'm not suspicious of everyone. I think Adam Jones and Rickie Weeks are kids who have turned the page, and learned how to hit Major League pitching. The goal is to uncover the Brady Andersons of the world. The guys whose production basically makes no sense.

Aaron Hill started the day with 11 homers in 177 abs. He entered the season with 28 homers in 1,720 career abs. He's short in stature, and yet on highlights Hill looks like he might catch a little chin music with his bare hand, and take a bite out of it.

Michael Young's slugging percentage went from .513 in '05, to .459 in '06, to .418 in '07, to .402 in '08. This year Young is inside-outing the ball over the fence to the tune of 7 home runs and a .588 slugging percentage. A position switch usually hurts a player's offense, and Young's numbers stand to improve as the weather heats up in Arlington this summer.

Johnny Damon is on pace for 7,000 home runs.

As the season progresses, more biologically enhanced career years may come to light, and when they do I'll make sure to publicly abhor them from my ivory tower. For now, let's just say I'm watching you, Wandy Rodriguez!

Send in the Clowns

2009-05-15T15:38:00.002-04:00

Things that make me mad:

Book reviewers describing fiction as "spare."

Drivers indicating that pedestrians should cross in front of them with that impatient "you first" gesture. I always want to say, "No shit me first, you've got a stop sign, and I'm half way into the crosswalk."

Tommy Lasorda.

People on the subway that make that sucking, slurping noise with their mouth and teeth.

Where Have You Gone, Joe DiMaggio?

2009-05-12T22:49:00.014-04:00

I take back everything bad I've ever said about Carlos Beltran. Not really.

I've often argued that the reason Carlos has the greatest stolen base percentage of all time is that he never steals a meaningful base. In fact, I'll go one step further. The reason Carlos has such a great career stolen base percentage is that he attempts steals in situations where it's actually a bad baseball play.

Well, Carlos stole a big, big base tonight, allowing the Mets to tie the game with a productive out supplied by Luis Castillo. The Mets came back to win a game they trailed by three runs heading into the 8th, and by a single run heading into the 9th. These kinds of wins have got to mean a little more to a team. Snatching victory from the clutches of defeat, beating a team's closer.

Beltran led off the 9th with a double off Mike Gonzalez, especially impressive after falling behind in the count. Beltran has been fantastic with the bat all season (in his quiet, pious sort of way). For the second time in the early season, David Wright found himself in a position, in the 9th, facing the opposing team's closer, to move a runner on second, representing the tying run, to 3rd with less than two outs. Both times I've screamed at my wife for the lovable slugger to sacrifice the runner over to third with a bunt, knowing full well that that's not how we play the game in the United States.

Let me back this truck up a bit. I got into a sizable argument with my father during the World Baseball Classic. We were both watching the semifinal game between the U.S. and Japan when he called me up, and told me that all his life he had viewed the World Series Champion as the best team in baseball, but now, after watching Japan and Korea, he wasn't so sure. I, of course, argued that the Americans weren't in mid-season form, that Venezuela was playing without Johan Santana, that Japan had four Major League Players in their starting lineup, but he wasn't having it. We were sort of having two different conversations, but that's neither here nor there.

There were a couple of things about what I saw in the World Baseball Classic that I found very significant, and both of them relate to the Mets' decision not to bunt with David Wright.

When you watch the team from Japan, for example, the best hitters know how to bunt. Even the cleanup hitter that might be known for hitting home runs most of time, knows how to bunt if the situation calls for it. If an American born player has been a stud on every team he's ever played for, the chances are good that he simply doesn't know how to do it.

The other thing I noticed about Japan and Korea is that they don't strike out. Not like we do.

When the Mets faced the Marlins at home last week, Wright was facing Matt Lindstrom. Obviously, David Wright is an above-average hitter, and many would argue that he should be able to swing the bat and, at the very least, advance the runner to third with less than 2 outs. However, at the time, David Wright was leading the league in strikeouts. In an incredibly similar situation tonight, David ranked third in the league in strikeouts, and in both cases faced a strikeout pitcher.

Last week, I loved the bunt partly because, since there were runners on 1st and 2nd, and assuming all of these overpaid, overfed Americans are hustling, the bunt takes away the chance of the double play. Tonight I loved the bunt because there was no force at third. A bunt has to be pretty lousy for a tag to be slapped on the speedy Beltran. Of course, I knew in both cases he wasn't bunting, and in both cases our best hitter didn't advance the runner to the next base.

Now, I don't know what the deal is with the best hitters in the game striking out 125 times a year, but there's something wrong with it. When my father and I have the quintessential generational argument about progress vs...whatever he's arguing for, he often sites Joe DiMaggio's strikeout totals.

Take a look at Joe D's lifetime numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dimagjo01.shtml

Notice how those 39 strikeouts his rookie year were the most he ever racked up. Why is it that great hitters in today's game have to strikeout 125 times a year? They don't shorten up, I guess is the answer, but why don't they shorten up? Are they more concerned with stats, with launching the occasional long ball? That's what it looked like when we played in that Classic. A lot of guys with long swings.

In the W. B. C., I saw a lot of at bats where Japanese batters flicked balls into the outfield with two strikes. You might call such a Texas Leaguer lucky, but there's no shot at a Texas Leaguer if you don't make contact. That's one of the reasons why all of the best pitchers are the pitchers that strikeout so many batters. When they get into a tough spot, they don't allow poor contact to beat them. Because after all, a hitter battling, a hitter flaring something out into no man's land may not be pretty, but it's beautiful baseball.

nudes and goats

2009-05-12T14:51:00.010-04:00

Remember how well Jordan Schafer started the season for the Braves? I'll remind you. Schafer homered twice in his first 3 Major League games, and posted a line of .421/.500/.842 through his first 5 games. Schafer must have had whatever Emilio Bonifacio was having because since that point, Schafer has hit .172/.327/.230, and has already struck out 389 times.

Speaking of prospects and great expectations, Cameron Maybin was sent down yesterday. And here I was hoping for a Dustin Pedroia-type May turnaround. Yeah, not so much. Maybin had been swinging and missing 99.7% of the time.

Last year's #1 overall pick, Tim Beckham, is starting to percolate in low-A. Beckham is hitting .350 in his last 10 contests, and has driven in a run in each of his last 9.

Top pitching prospects Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, and Jarrod Parker have all impressed after recent promotions to double-A. Of these three, Bumgarner has the highest ceiling, and might be rushed to the Majors if the Giants find themselves in the mix.

I like when baseball analysts take credit for things that have already happened. Does anybody remember when Max Scherzer had that debut out of the pen when he struck out something like 8 guys in 4 innings? Buster Olney went on television and said, "This year's Joba Chamberlain is Max Scherzer."

Or as my wife would say, "Max Schehzeh!" Thanks for the insight, Buster. I can read the box score too. And by the way, Crazy Eyed Scherzer is now winless in his first 13 big league starts.

A Little Night Music

2009-05-10T09:49:00.011-04:00

This article recaps last night's annual White House Correspondents' Association dinner. Some amazing one-liners.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090510/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_obama_correspondents

It's surprising who hosts Saturday Night Live well. In the last couple of years, some of my favorites have included Peyton Manning, Brian Williams, and Justin Timberlake. Check out the long awaited sequel to Dick in a Box:

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/digital-short-motherlover/1099491/

Around the NL East

2009-05-09T09:21:00.004-04:00

Jesus Flores is hitting .314/.388/.535, and throwing out 42% of base stealers. He'll be 24 all season.

The Nationals are 8-8 in their last 16 games.

Jo-Jo Reyes hasn't won in his last 17 starts, Tommy Hanson's numbers in triple-A are incredible, and the Braves lack star power.

Brad Lidge gave up his 5th home run of the season last night after giving up only 2 last year. Lidge has given up 11 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings after giving up only 15 in 69 1/3 innings in '08.

The Mets won last night, and were able to avoid using Francisco Rodriguez who had pitched four straight nights. Rodriguez has converted 203 of his last 225 save opportunities.

Fernando Martinez is 13 for his last 27, and is now batting .300/.349/.550.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions Part 6: Attack of the Clones

2009-05-08T16:52:00.001-04:00

In July of 2004, Scott Kazmir was at the midway-point between being rated baseball's #12 prospect ('04), and baseball's #7 prospect ('05). Not counting deals involving players that have struck homeplate umpires with their bat, the only player with that kind of pedigree to be traded since Kazmir is Cameron Maybin, and he was traded for a 24 year old Miguel Cabrera.

Teams trying to deal a slugger or an ace pitcher still try to bring in a blue chip prospect or two, but more and more the very top prospects in the game are deemed untouchable. It's almost impossible to conceive of Matt Wieters or David Price getting traded, but the reality is that after Kazmir, Tommy Hanson's not getting traded either. Even for Jake Peavy. A very raw Michael Stanton wasn't getting traded last year for Manny Ramirez, with the playoffs on the line, and the Red Sox willing to pay Manny's salary. Madison Bumgarner, Jason Heyward, Travis Snider, Buster Posey - these guys are not getting traded.

The Rays played so well last year, and are so well set up for the future, that other teams are definitely going to try to follow their model. Teams have become so protective of their draft picks that this past off-season Major League Baseball was ready to make an arrangement with the player's union so that certain free agents wouldn't cost their new team draft picks. I don't think that was just a byproduct of the economy, I think as time goes by teams are going to horde their youthful commodities even more.

I guarantee you this: Brian Cashman was paying attention when the Kazmir deal happened. Johan Santana is a Yankee if not for Scott Kazmir. Maybe I should thank Rick Peterson. And Jim Duquette. And Fred and Jeff Wilpon. And Al Leiter.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions Part 5: The Lightning Round

2009-05-08T10:15:00.000-04:00

Raise your hand if you're getting tired of me breaking down trades. Let the record state that I raised my own hand.

Now the lightning round...

There was no way I wasn't going to forget trades and do this out of order, and now it's official! Two weeks before Alfonso Soriano was sent to the Nationals, probably the biggest trade in the last five years took place. The Marlins traded Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Harvey Garcia, and Jesus Delgado.

Beckett was something of an emigma at the time of the deal (and sort of still is). He's the best post-season pitcher of the decade, but gets hurt a lot, gets blisters a lot, and tends to be pretty average during a lot of regular season starts. All of that doesn't really matter because he's personally responsible for the Marlins winning in '03, and the Red Sox winning in '07. I almost didn't include the trade because at the time it was made Beckett was 25 years old. This really ought to fall into the Miguel Cabrera category, and I've just decided to put it there.

Also, Hanley Ramirez is good at baseball.

Moving right along. The Braves shrugged off fears of a Scott Kazmir redux when they traded Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Beau Jones for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. The Rangers were just rated by Baseball America as having the best farm system in all of baseball, and this trade is a big reason why. Saltalamacchia and Andrus were both top prospects (not elite) when the deal was made, but Neftali Feliz exploding the way he did last year makes this trade, at least at this point, incredibly one-sided.

To makes matters worse the Braves got far, far less when they turned around one year later and dealt Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek. Kotchman is a classic, slick fielding, no power, first baseman in the Rafael Palmeiro (before steroids) David Segui (before steriods), James Loney (maybe he should help out my fantasy team and take some steroids) mold. Remember when you could be a slick fielding first baseman with gap power, and not be a huge handicap to your team? Well, the Mark Graces and Keith Hernandezes of the world would probably have a hard time getting scouted these days.

Leading up to the 2008 campaign, 3 young aces were dealt for hundreds of thousands of prospects. This reminds me of something Keith Law wrote about taking Bryce Harper over Stephen Strasburg, if he were eligible, in the '09 draft. Your appropriate reaction to that should be, "Whhaaahhhtttt???" Oh my god, I reacted exactly the same way! But Law actually makes a really good point. How many young, cornerstone of a franchise type, catchers do you see traded? How many times have McCann, Mauer, Wieters, and Martin been traded? Compare that with young aces that seem to get traded all of time. Chew on that.

So Bedard goes to the M's for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and Chris Tillman; Dan Haren goes to the D'Backs for Carlos Gonzalez, and a lot of other people that wound up in Oakland's rotation in '08; and Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball, gets dealt to the New York Mets, the Mets are granted a window to negotiate with him, that window is then extended by Major League Baseball, and the Twins get in return...

Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and three large cartons of orange juice.

Now that's making a splash with your first trade as a general manager. The Twins probably should have bit on the package built around Lester, or the package built around Ellsbury, or the package built around Hughes. Speaking of Deolis Guerra, I need to write about the Mets insistence on pushing top prospects so that they're always young and overmatched at every level of the minors.

And in the last 10 months, C.C. Sabathia was traded for a group of minor leaguers headed by Matt LaPorta (definitely not an elite prospect because, although he can hit, he's an unathletic outfielder); Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers in a three way trade that I'll write about later; and Matt Holliday was traded for a then not as well thought of Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and spare parts.

In hindsight, the prospect packages have really worked out on three occasions: Haren's been infinitely better than Mulder, the Bedard deal looks great for the Orioles (Jones is a beast, Sherrill's their closer, and Tillman is supposed to be great), and the first Teixeira deal looks great for the Rangers. However, I'm more interested in the level of prospect that has been dealt since our boy Scott...

A Little Night Music

2009-05-07T21:31:00.000-04:00

If you don't know David Benioff's writing, get to know it. He's married to Amanda Peet, and she may be the lucky one.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions Part 4: Kazmiritis

2009-05-07T16:03:00.001-04:00

I've decided to skip the White Sox dealing Carlos Lee because the biggest piece coming back from the Brewers was Scott Podsednik, a Major Leaguer, and the Phillies making room for Ryan Howard by dealing Jim Thome and a lot of money for Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez, and Daniel Haigwood because I thought Thome was done at the time of the deal.

That brings us to a trade of an all-world player, an electrifying talent, for less than a bag of shells. I believe this deal hasn't gotten the attention it deserves because the star player didn't stay with his new team for very long, however, this is a doozy, and it must take its rightful place in the pantheon of bad trades.

Eyebrows in the baseball world were collectively raised when the lowly Nationals traded for Alfonso Soriano a year before he was set to make a huge payday. Soriano responded with a 40/40 campaign, in a terrible hitter's park, playing a new position, that would have been even more impressive if he hadn't faded down the stretch. The Tigers were believed to have a case of Kazmiritis when they were unwilling to part with elite prospect Cameron Maybin in a deal for Soriano (even though they would have been able to afford signing him to a long-term deal), so the Texas Rangers decided to pull the trigger on...

Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge, and Armando Galarraga.

Whoops. Wilkerson, the crown jewel in the Rangers haul, is now retired. Termel Sledge is Termel Sledge. And Galarraga, who was not all that well thought of, the Rangers would deal before blossoming.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions Part 3: Don't Call Me Danny

2009-05-07T13:42:00.000-04:00

Two days after trading Hudson, Billy Beane parted ways with the second of "The Big Three," California surfer Mark Mulder.

Mulder was dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals for Daric Barton, Danny Haren, and Kiko Calero. Barton's patience fit the Moneyball philosophy, and in February 2005, Baseball America would rate Barton as the #32 prospect in the game. The A's gave Barton every opportunity last year, but it appears patience is the only thing the converted catcher brings to the table. In 523 plate appearances in 2008, Barton walked 65 times, but he hit .226 and slugged .348. Patient corner infielders with big frames that don't hit for power are so annoying. Sean Burroughs and Dave Magadan come to mind. All Haren had to do was change his name from Danny to Dan and he became an ace. Calero, a spare part in the deal, had two good years and one bad year with the A's. Mark Mulder had one solid season with the Cards before being ravaged by injuries.

Again, an ace (not Victor Zambrano) gets dealt for a top prospect (not an elite prospect like Kazmir), a mid-level prospect, and a middle reliever. Billy Beane should be credited with dealing these guys when they still had value, and not spending limited funds on long term deals. You know, super duper pitching genius Rick Peterson and his biomechanics led to a lot of injuries and small windows of success for "The Big Three." Peterson was widely accused of not liking Kazmir's biomechanics, but thinking with an adjustment or two he could right the troubled vessel that was Victor Zambrano. Thanks, Rick.

nudes and goats

2009-05-07T12:36:00.000-04:00

Manny Ramirez has been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. I guess this makes sense - you're not supposed to get better when you're 37 years old.

Last night, Dan Meyer responded to my less than flattering post by coming out of the Marlins bullpen and having his best outing as a Major Leaguer. Meyer struck out 5 and didn't allow a run in 2 2/3 innings.

Johan Santana is a very, very good baseball player.

nudes and goats

2009-05-06T17:38:00.000-04:00

Contrary to published reports, there were well over 12 fans in attendance at last night's Yankees/Red Sox game.

Joba Chamberlain walked off the mound to a standing ovation from scores of fans that made it out to the Bronx last night. Chamberlain gave up 4 earned runs on 6 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Carlos Deldago dropped a routine pop up that would have been the final out in last night's Mets game. One wonders whether Delgado's mind had drifted to his signature fist pump reserved for double plays and the last out of ball games.

Ryan Zimmerman is good again.

Cole Hamels' hair is totally ridiculous in a new ESPN The Magazine spot with Chad Johnson and Jameer Nelson.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions Part 2: Bucket of Baseballs

2009-05-06T12:48:00.000-04:00

Let's start with Tim Hudson to Atlanta for a bucket of baseballs.

The Atlanta Braves traded Dan Meyer at the perfect time in December 2004 following easily his best campaign as a professional. In Baseball America's annual top 100 prospect list (put out each February), Meyer jumped from #82 in '04, to #43 entering the '05 season. At his apex, Meyer was a very good prospect, but never projected as a top of the rotation starter like Kazmir. The A's also brought in Juan Cruz, a solid middle reliever, and Charles Thomas whose ceiling was a useful third or fourth outfielder in the Endy Chavez mold. Anybody remember that month on Baseball Tonight when it seemed like Charles Thomas made a sprawling catch a night? Well, Cruz and Thomas both had one bad season for the Athletics before in Cruz's case moving on to Arizona, and in Thomas' case being sent down. Charles' lifetime slugging percentage in 8 Minor League seasons is .383.

Hudson has been a disaster for the Braves, but that's beside the point. At the time of the deal he was an ace in his prime (although a strikeout plunge in '04 was clearly a red flag for the A's), and had considerably more value than Victor Zambrano and his befuddled expression ever had. The As got quantity, but Dan Meyer is no Scott Kazmir.

The Scott Kazmir Trade and its Repercussions

2009-05-06T12:40:00.000-04:00

Most Mets fans remember where they were when they found out that pitching phenom Scott Kazmir had been dealt to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for a bag of shells. It was a move cynical Mets fans hated from the start, and for good reason. Victor Zambrano was terrible with the Mets, and as my father recently pointed out, Scott Kazmir keeps getting younger. Over the next few days, I'd like to examine what I believe is a change of philosophy, across major league baseball, as a result of the Mets historic blunder.

It has been almost five years since the Mets traded Kazmir in the famously one-sided deal. During that time, a fair number of star players have been dealt for top prospects. What I'd like to investigate is whether there has been any change in what teams are willing to give up for established players that are most often approaching free agency. I won't include the Miguel Cabrera/Willis/Maybin/Miler deal as Cabrera was 24 at the time of the deal, and therefore doesn't fit my model of youth for experience, potential for a proven commodity. I'll leave out trades like Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young to San Diego for Adam Eaton because while Gonzalez has developed into a marquee player, he wasn't at the time the deal was made.

Javier Vazquez

2009-05-05T13:42:00.000-04:00

Javier Vazquez is something of a statistical anomaly. I challenge my readers, if there are any of you out there, to name another starting pitcher who dominates as much as Javy does, part of the time, but winds up with mediocre results (after looking into it a bit, A.J. Burnett is the only guy that compares). Javy gives his team length, he strikes people out at a prodigious rate, he keeps people off base at a decent clip, he doesn't give up a ton of home runs, and he's not that good.

Last year, Javier Vazquez finished 10th in all of baseball with 200 strikeouts. Strikeouts are usually a decent indicator of stuff, and last year the guys with the most strikeouts, with the exception of Vazquez, were the guys that were the best pitchers. Of the other pitchers with 200 strikeouts, only Burnett's era wasn't a full run better than Vazquez's (and Burnett won 18 games in the AL East, while Vazquez went 12-16 in a weak division). This year, Javier has gone from a hitter's park in the American League to a pitcher's park in the National League. The result is that his stuff is dominating even more. His 50 strikeouts are 2nd in baseball behind the unconscious Zack Greinke, and his strikeout rate per 9 innings is 4th behind Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum, and Johan Santana. That's some company.

By the way, Vazquez is 2-3 with a 4.19 era. Pitching in the National League in a pitcher's park hasn't made Javy a winning player.

Balls and Strikes and Mike Piazza

2009-05-04T13:56:00.001-04:00

I have a number of theories about balls and strikes and how they are called by home plate umpires.

First of all, it truly amazes me that the dead center field camera angle, which is used in Boston, St. Louis, and Minnesota, and on a number of ball/strike instant replays, isn't used all of the time. At a later date, I will devote an entire post to the travesty that is the network's decision to keep force feeding us the standard center field camera angle. You know the one I mean. The one where both pitcher and batter's box are large in the frame, and a left handed batter trying to hit a left handed pitcher's breaking ball looks about as easy as trying to drink coffee with a fork (That's Willie Stargell's line about trying to hit Sandy Koufax. Where have all the lyrical ball players gone?) Because the standard camera angle isn't straight on, we have no way of knowing which pitches are truly over the plate. With all of the technology at our fingertips, with all of the advanced scouting (I selected high school sophomore Bryce Harper in my fantasy baseball draft), and the sabermetrics, and the blogs, and the comments on blogs, with all of the demand for more sophisticated ways of understanding the sport, isn't it a little bit crazy that the action is shot from an angle where you can't trust what you're looking at?

If you're like me and follow games on Gamecast or Gameday, you might be shocked and frustrated by how bad umpiring has gotten. The outline of the ball is clearly in the rectangular box, how could you have missed that, blue! Whenever I see blown calls on Gamecast I attribute it to the pitcher missing his spot. During the Mets/Phillies game on Saturday, the home plate umpire would not call a strike if the pitcher missed his spot. I have a problem with that. I also have a problem with a catcher setting up on the black when Oliver Perez has no idea where it's going, but that's for another post. It's as if the umpire isn't just deciding whether the pitch crossed over the plate or not, but also judging intent. The catcher was set up inside, you through a somewhat fat strike, thigh high, on the outer third of the plate, therefore I will call a ball because that's not where you meant to throw it. This may sound loony, but remember umpires referred to intent in explaining the absence of the high strike, "We're not going to give that to pitchers because they're trying to keep the ball down. We're not going to reward them for missing their spot." Well, now pitchers don't get the high strike, or the low strike (where they are trying to throw it). Every time they show a borderline low pitch from that dugout camera angle, it's always high enough.

My theory is that umpires are far too wrapped up in the catcher's body. Yeah, you heard me. Remember the Eric Gregg/Livan Hernandez playoff game? I can still see The Crime Dog's look of disbelief as he was wrung up on a pitch a foot and a half off the plate. Last time I looked at the rule book, there was a designated area where the catcher had to position himself. That area is called the catcher's box. There's also supposed to be a batter's box, delineated by white chalk. The only time I've ever seen that rule enforced, Carl Everett looked like he was going to jump through my television set and beat me.

Saturday's Mets/Phillies strike zone was such a clear example of bad umpiring. The pitcher would get the call on a borderline pitch if he hit the target. An inch off the plate, two inches off, why not, the guy threw it right where he wanted. But if that catcher had to reach a few inches towards the middle of the zone, no sir! It may be an issue of where the umpires are positioned. Supposedly, because an umpire always sets up over the inside part of the catcher's body they don't give inside strikes. The rationale being that they can really see that side of the plate, whereas they give more on the outer half because seeing 17" over is inexact. One might ask, why doesn't the guy set up in the middle of the zone no matter where the catcher is?

And another thing. The strike zone is supposed to resemble a rectangle - horizontally from one side of the plate to the other, and vertically from the knees to the letters. Umpires don't really recognize the top of the strike zone, but it is theoretically there. When I watch a game on television it's clear to me that an umpire's actual zone doesn't look so much like a rectangle. It looks more like an oval. An umpire will give a pitcher the very bottom or very top of the strike zone if the pitcher centers the pitch. The same goes for the inverse. The umpire will give a pitcher that strike on the black, but you better split the catcher's body perfectly and hit the glove. An umpire can only give so much. The result is that the height depends on the width and vice verse. The umpire makes it clear that you can throw to one edge of the strike zone, but not to two. The result is, that most dreaded word to associate with umpiring, inconsistency.

And then there's the catcher's body. Presently, I'm very excited about Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, an offensive-minded catcher who is tearing up the pitcher-friendly Florida State League (and who I drafted in my fantasy baseball draft). Montero stands (or squats) at, less than ideal for a catcher, 6' 4," making it difficult for him to get low, and theoretically making the umpire's job even harder. Most scouts don't believe Montero will stick as a catcher, but the Yankees see Montero as a Mike Piazza type (so says Baseball America, anyway). A catcher in the Mike Piazza mold? Maybe I should be the one to tell the Yankees that that's not good.

This got me thinking a little about our old friend Mike, an all-time great offensive player, but a remarkably bad defensive player. I used to try to calculate how many strikes Mike Piazza would cost his pitchers per game. Was it one a game? One an inning? I've never seen a catcher frame pitches so badly. Mike used to move his glove with the impact of the pitch instead of "keeping it there," and then if the pitch was just off the plate, he would jerk his glove back into the strike zone instead of turning his glove. So he had a double move. Catchers are taught, or should be, to move their glove, when catching the baseball, as little as possible. Umpires know that if a catcher brings his glove back towards the strike zone, he didn't think it would be called a strike where it was. The best framers use a bit of psychology. It's better to leave your glove where it is, and turn or shape the pitch, even if it's off the plate, than move the whole glove back towards the zone. The first move in Piazza's style was just an inability to be quiet with his hands as he received the ball. He would stab at the ball, catch it, and let the momentum of the pitch take his glove away from where he caught it. That was followed by the conspicuous full move with the glove back. The Flying Molina Brothers make everything look like a strike, and the Mets had The Pizza Man making strikes look like balls.

Why is it that if a catcher drops a close pitch it never gets called a strike? Why is it that if a catcher gets crossed up, rises up for a fastball, then has to react to a breaking ball, no matter where the pitch is, it never gets called a strike? Why is it that 12 to 6 hooks get judged based on where the catcher catches the ball, and not where the pitch crosses the plate? And why is it that when Randy Johnson is batting the top of his strike zone is below his belt buckle?

Umpires need to keep their eyes on the baseball, call a strike a strike, and stop judging everything based on the positioning and presentation of the catcher.

Grit

2009-05-03T19:43:00.000-04:00

All this talk about how gritty the Phillies are and how ungritty the Mets are has got me thinking.

a) The Phillies weren't so gritty - minus Chase Utley - until they got hot at the right time, and wound up winning the World Series. Six months ago, they were a team that pretty consistently underachieved in the Pat Burrell Era. Of course one has to give them credit for getting hot, and winning the World Series, but doesn't it seem like all of the gritty talk is going a little overboard? Victorino is a fun, scrappy, clutch player. Utley is an incredible player and gritty to boot - a rare combination. But are Ryan Howard, Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson and Jayson Werth so gritty and selfless? It seems to me that they're just good.

b) Part of the reason the media has bestowed the Phillies with this lunch pail persona is that they are being compared with the Mets. Eric Karros said something on yesterday's telecast that really made sense to me. About the Mets elaborate handshakes Karros said something like, "If they're spending time working on that stuff, that's time they're not working on things that will actually help them be better baseball players."

I love youthful enthusiasm if you're good. I love the showmanship of K-Rod. He's as entertaining a pitcher as I can remember watching (just had flashes of Turk Wendel go through my mind). The 1986 Mets are so near and dear to my heart partly because they were a little ridiculous. However, I don't want to see two outfielders jump into the air and knock sides in the fashion that has become so popular if we win a game that makes us 11 up and 13 down. If someone wins a game with a hit or a great play and there is actual excitement that's one thing. But I don't want to see any choreography unless we're playing significantly better than we are. It makes us look like a bunch of clowns.