Florida Teams Flexible, Ready for Key Personnel Losses

How many Major League rotations would Jeremy Hellickson not be able to crack? Off the top of my head, I'm guessing the all-star teams in Boston and New York, and the rotation that we know he can't crack, Tampa's. Well, Wade Davis better get his act together because Jeremy Hellickson's four-pitch mix is singin' in Triple-A like Lea Michele on the Tonys, "I'm-a comer."

Many have correctly predicted that after Carl Crawford signs his nine figure deal this offseason, with a team that may or may not rhyme with the Phew Gork Bankees, Desmond Jennings will slide into Crawford's outfield slot, and the Rays probably won't miss a beat. Carlos Pena's strange, strange offensive game should be leaving Tampa/St. Pete this coming offseason as well. Most teams in Major League baseball would take a huge hit by letting players as productive as Crawford and Pena go. The Rays have about 17 different ways of filling those gaps, and each seems more athletic and exciting than the next.

Ben Zobrist has been a revelation not just because of his rare power-speed combo, but because he can play all over the field. With the emergence of Sean "the right handed Chase Utley" Rodriguez over the last week and a half, the Rays have two under-30, athletic players with power that can play almost anywhere on the diamond. The Rays now have four above-average middle infielders, Zobrist, Sean-Rod, Brignac and Bartlett, when most other teams don't have two. It seems likely that Zobrist and his height will fill Pena's spot at first, leaving the Rays plenty of options at second, short, right, and DH. Brignac is looking more and more like the future at shortstop, and Rodriguez has shown the ability to play the outfield when called upon. Matt Joyce has a .470 OBP in Durham, Hank Blalock is starting to hit, and John Jaso makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Jason Bartlett, an under-30 shortstop who hit .320 in '09, may be the odd man out.

Did I mention I'm a fan of Sean Rodriguez?

Another team that seems always able to fill in as their players get too expensive is the Florida Marlins. I know what you're thinking. This is some analysis. Do they give the Pulitzer to bloggers? Well, I don't know.

Dan Uggla's final arbitration year in 2011 should command upwards of $13 million. While most teams couldn't afford to cut ties with the only second baseman in MLB history with 30 homers three years in a row, the Marlins will probably deal Uggla, save money, and reload.

Watching Chris Coghlan play the outfield is a little like accompanying Casey McGehee to the all-you-can-eat-ribs special at Golden Corral; it's not pretty. However, the League Of Nations Head-of-Scouting just called me on Gordon Gecko's cell phone to tell me that Coghlan is actually pretty solid at his natural position, 2nd base. Remember Chris Coghlan? He's 24 years old, a .308 career hitter, and a lover of freedom.

Mike Stanton looks like he is going to bare-hand change ups Geena Davis style, and shove it down your f!#king throat, Tom Berenger style. LOOOOOOVE HIMMMM!!!

Gaby Sanchez seems to battle every time I tune in like a right-handed Paul O'Neill or something. If there's one Marlin that's not going to be caught off balance by Johan Santana's increasingly pedestrian fastball/change repertoire, it's Gaby Sanchez. If there's one Marlin that is, it's Cameron Maybin. He's tuuurrrribbuuulllll!!!

Logan Morrison is tearing up Triple-A, and is clearly their three hitter of the future - a good thing because the Fish are very right handed, another reason they'll say goodbye to Mr. Uggla, and possibly Mr. Ross who's set to make about 9 million next year.

After Morrison gets the call, I want to see them put Sanchez in left. He might not make a putout all season.

Nudes and Goats

What do you think Jason Bay says to himself when he sees the lineup card and reads that he's batting 5th in the Mets order, and Mike Jacobs is in the 4 hole? Maybe he thinks, "Well, it makes sense because Jerry's splitting up the lefties. Wait, there are no lefties to split. Well, he wants to split up the righties. Split up the righties...I liked it better in Boston."

When I coached Little League, I toyed with batting my best hitter first, Ichiro style. We're conditioned to expect the best hitter in a lineup to be in the 3 hole, but an argument can be made that if one player is going to get that 5th at bat at the end of the game, it's better to see Ryan Zimmerman up there against a closer than Nyjer Morgan. I'm not saying I'd bat Zimmerman leadoff, but I would bat Bay 4th, and Jacobs 5th. I'd bat Gary Matthews Jr. not at all, and I'd bat Jeff Francoeur on his cranium.

It seems like on bang-bang plays at first, umpires get the call right 50 percent of the time. Incidentally, they could also flip a coin and get the call right 50 percent of the time.

Sometimes Keith Hernandez really gets on a roll when everything that comes out of his mouth for half an inning is wrong.

This is definitely starting to feel like a very long season for the Mets. Too many Maine/Nolasco matchups aren't going to lead to a lot of wins in the Mets column.

Ian Desmond Finishes 5th in MVP Voting

If you're like me, it drives you a little crazy when baseball analysts state the obvious. I love the MLB Network more than most things in life, but it gets a little tiresome when the prognosticators, the guys paid to give you information that you don't already have, just regurgitate either the extremely obvious or Baseball America.

Tom Verducci of SI fame predicts the NL Rookie of the Year voting to look like this: 1. Jason Heyward; 2. Stephen Strasburg; 3. Mike Stanton. Geez Tom, that's some analysis. He likes Brian Matusz to win in the American League. As a pathetic, super fan, I'm looking for guys like Tom, guys that spend a ton of time in March in Arizona and Florida, to tell me something I don't already know. We won't hold it against you if you're wrong. And by the same token, I'm not giving you any credit when Heyward wins the award. Last year, Chris Coghlan and Andrew Bailey were nowhere near anyone's radar. Everyone knew about Price, Weiters, Hanson, Rasmus, Maybin, Fowler, et al., and, predictably, none of them won the award (although Hanson was pretty spectacular). For those of us who have watched and read a ridiculous amount in the last 4 to 6 weeks in anticipation of the season, we've heard Jason Heyward's name so many times that we're beginning to hate the guy.

The same goes for John Hart, my favorite of the MLB Network team, and his pick-to-click segment at the end of the 30 Teams in 30 Days shows. John, we know the highest rated prospect in each system. It does us little-to-no good to hear you restate what we've already read in Baseball America. You could qualify your opinion with, "This is what most in the industry agree on, but I like..." It wouldn't kill you. This was never truer than with The D'Backs special. Jarrod Parker isn't pitching year! How can he be your pick-to-click!?!

Here are some predictions that wouldn't have made me angry:

NL Rookie of the Year: Ian Desmond

AL Rookie of the Year: Danny Valencia

NL Cy Young: (tie) Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa

AL Cy Young: Brett Anderson

NL MVP: Joey Votto

AL MVP: Billy Butler

I spent about ten minutes on that. None of it will happen, but at least I offered something up. Verducci did his best not to state the obvious when he decided to pick MVPs that weren't Pujols and Mauer. His picks: Longoria and Tulowitzki. I haven't read all there is to read. I don't know who people are picking to win MVPs beyond the little that I've caught out of my peripheral vision. But don't those seem like the most obvious, trendy picks imaginable? I understand it's a fine line. I guess my MVP choices aren't on teams good enough, but what about Panda and Kendry Morales? Anyone that didn't go to Cal State Fullerton.

Just for the record, I love Tulowitzki. And I love Ian Desmond. Like in an unhealthy way. I think once Strasburg is called up, the Nats will be a better team than the Mets. I think the Rockies win a boatload of games, and I think the Phillies are in an injury away from not making the playoffs.

Even Omar Would Fire Omar

When it was announced, my friend Greg and I argued the merits of the Jason Bay signing, and came to the following conclusion: the move made sense as long as it didn't prohibit our favorite baseball team from addressing their other needs; namely a first baseman, a short term fix at catcher, and, I'd argue, two starting pitchers.

In 2010, the Mets have singlehandedly ushered in a new era in professional sports. Guys like Bengie Molina and Joel Pineiro are actually leaving money on the table so that they don't have to play for the lovable losers, and as a fan, I've never felt quite this demoralized with a fresh baseball season on the horizon. And I've rooted for some lousy Mets teams.

In the past, Mets' brass have usually given me some reason to hope, even if those reasons were misguided. The Mets tend to overpay for over-the-hill free agents, and Mets fans are usually blind sided when said free agent's alcoholism is made apparent before his 29th birthday. Perhaps there's a flurry of acquisitions like in 2002 (Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio, Jeff D'Amico), when the law of averages would dictate that even if half bomb, we'll still be tough to beat. In the past, there may have been a phenom ready to take orbit like Gregg Jefferies, Paul Wilson, or Alex Escobar. Not this year.

Yesterday felt like a swift kick to the nuts when the Mets signed Josh Fogg, and re-signed Fernando Tatis. What, you were hoping for more? I like Fernando Tatis as much as the next guy, but his signing means that our first base solution is a platoon between him and Daniel Murphy. Ehhh.

We are the fourth best team in our division, and I'm not so sure that if a few things fall into place for those pesky Nats, we're not a last place team. The thing that Mets fans keep telling me is that if all of our players stay healthy we are a such-and-such win team. If all our players stay healthy. As I write this it's the last weekend of January, and all of our players are not healthy. Carlos Delgado, who was included as one of our players in those discussions even though he wasn't and isn't under contract, wasn't moving so well laterally down in Puerto Rico, and is now viewed as an American League player. So much for our only guy that can hit homers in our new digs. Carlos Beltran just had major knee surgery. Ehhh.

I'm not sure whether Jason Bay's signing had any effect on Mr. Molina or Mr. Pineiro's decisions, and if we had those two guys I'm sure I'd be justifying our merits the way I do each and every February, but here's how I would have spent the 17 million annually Omar sunk into one player when we have holes all over the diamond: Marlon Byrd 5 million, Adam LaRoche 5 million, and Joel Pineiro 8 million (Ok, the Mets wanted Pineiro, he didn't want them, so I'll spend my fake dollars elsewhere), Jon Garland 4 million, and Torrealba 2 million. That's 16 million for four players, and it's now being written that the Red Sox were "terrified" of Jason Bay's knees, and no other club besides the Mets was seriously in talks with the slugger. It would not shock me if Marlon Byrd alone outperforms Bay over the next three years.

Am I the only one that feels like the Mets are tanking so that they can fire Minaya? Should I be the one to tell the Wilpons that they have the authority to fire Minaya now, and don't need to tank? When I see Minaya on tv these days it's just sad. You get the impression that if it was his call, he would fire himself.

Hey Omar, cheer up! I would fire you, too. Just for kicks, here's a premature trip down memory lane, my 5 favorite Omar decisions:

1. Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins

After this little doozy, Omar mused, "It may not be a sexy trade, you have to remember, the little ones are what count sometimes. Those are the ones." How true. It wasn't a sexy trade. Or even a good trade. Or even a not totally embarrassing, horrendous trade. Plus it wasn't sexy.

2. In a three team trade, the Mets acquire J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green, and give up Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto.

Everyone including me loved this deal when Omar made it, but if you're the man calling the shots you've got to own the bad along with the good, and this one may go down as Omar's worst deal of all. Putz appears to have been damaged goods, having one lousy, injury riddled year with the Mets. Carrera blew up and hit .340 in double-A. Carp, the one guy in the deal I wasn't crazy about parting with, had another solid year in the upper minors before posting a .315/.415/.463 line in 63 September Major League abs. In all fairness to Omar, he thought he was trading for Shonn Greene the running back out of Iowa, not Tom Everett Scott, the actor who played the drummer in That Thing You Do.

Am I the only one that wants to follow Trader Jack around with pad and pencil Michael Lewis style? Note to Omar, do not make trades with Trader Jack.

3. Oliver Perez, 3 years 36 million

4. Brian Bannister for Ambiorix Burgos

Ambiorix Burgos Sentenced

Former Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos has been sent to jail — though it may not be for what you think.

Although the former flamethrower inadvertently (or intentionally) ran over and killed two human beings with his Hummer in the Dominican Republic last fall, he is actually being sentenced for beating his girlfriend in a Queens hotel a few weeks earlier.

His current wife — who is not the aforementioned girlfriend — wrote a letter to the judge claiming that Burgos is “a good husband”. Burgos and his wife have been married for about a month.

5. Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom for Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick.

Just for kicks, check out Bostick's Minor League numbers since the trade. When you catch your breath, consider that Owens and Lindstrom both worked as the Marlins closer for extended stretches.

Tell Aaron Schatz, Revis Can Cover Big Receivers

As a nerdy baseball fan (I drafted Bryce Harper in my 26 keeper fantasy league last year when he was still a high school sophomore), I love Aaron Schatz's take on the NFL, especially since everything he's been spouting lately has been pro Jets. I've got two corrections for him, though, from his last Bill Simmons podcast:

1. While Sanchez played his best game last week, he's played well to the tune of 0 turnovers for three straight weeks. Also, Bill was hinting at comparing his progression to Big Ben's rookie year...Big Ben laid an absolute egg in his first playoff game leading a 15-1 team (the Doug Brien game), and then played worse the following week in the AFC Championship game.

2. Schatz was talking about Revis' height vs. Vincent Jackson as a potential issue. This really surprised me. Randy Moss is tall. Colston is tall. Andre Johnson, too, is tall. When there's a jump ball and Revis is involved, Revis is playing offense. Did you see that back shoulder play to Chad Johnson last week? Jump balls are about timing more than height. If the Jets lose on Sunday, I'm pretty sure it's not going to be because Darrelle Revis can't cover.